A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
